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NABE Annual Survey: U.S. Economic Growth to Accelerate Slightly Next Year, But Inflation May Remain Elevated
BlockBeats News, November 24th, the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) stated in its annual forecast survey that the U.S. economic growth rate will slightly accelerate next year, but job growth will remain weak, and the Federal Reserve will slow down the pace of further interest rate cuts.
This survey covered 42 professional forecasters, and the results show that the median economic forecast is for a 2% growth, higher than the 1.8% from the October survey. The increase in personal spending and business investment is expected to drive the economic growth higher, but professional forecasters almost unanimously believe that the Trump administration's new import tariffs will drag down the growth rate by at least 0.25 percentage points.
The survey report stated, "Respondents believe that the 'tariff impact' is the greatest downside risk to the U.S. economic outlook." Stricter immigration enforcement is also seen as a factor inhibiting economic growth, while productivity improvement is considered the most likely factor to drive economic growth higher than expected.
In addition, it is expected that inflation at the end of this year will be 2.9%, slightly lower than the 3% forecast in the October survey, and next year it is expected to decrease slightly to 2.6%, with tariffs contributing 0.25 to 0.75 percentage points. Measured by historical standards, job growth is still expected to be relatively modest, adding about 64,000 jobs per month, well below recent averages. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in early 2026 and remain at that level for the whole year. As inflation remains high and the unemployment rate only slightly rises, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, but is expected to cut by only another 50 basis points next year, approaching the rough neutral level of monetary policy. (Jin10)
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