logo

Multiple "Insider" New Accounts Coordinate to Bet that Trump Will Not Declassify UFO Files This Year

By: theblockbeats.news|2025/12/08 14:46:01
0
Share
copy
ufoufo
defensedefense
when-vipwhen-vip

BlockBeats News, December 8, according to PolyBeats, a prediction market titled "Will Trump Declassify UFO Files in 2025?" surged from 5% to 71% in half an hour yesterday, sparking expectations of the imminent disclosure of UFO information. The establishment of this market is based on Trump's explicit promise during the 2024 election campaign to "declassify everything" and the mandatory declassification requirements for the Department of Defense (DoD) in the 2025 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

Trading data shows that the rise in this probability began with the trader ster. He started continuously buying "Yes" shares when the market was set up, and yesterday's surge in probability was also due to his market buy orders when liquidity was low, pushing up the probability. Looking back at his trading history, his operations are more in line with the "buy low, sell high" trading pattern rather than that of an insider.

On the contrary side to ster, there are 6 accounts whose actions are more noteworthy in the 12 hours following the probability increase. They bought a total of over 20,000 "No" shares at an average price below $0.2, betting that Trump will not declassify UFO files in 2025. These accounts share a common trait: this is their only position on Polymarket.

The simultaneous actions of these six accounts with such consistent timing, price, and position size have introduced another possibility in the change of this market: these 6 accounts used AARO's website updates as a "smokescreen" to deliberately or passively boost the probability of "Yes," causing the price of "No" to drop to rock bottom, allowing them to build their positions at a low cost. These traders are well aware that the routine updates on AARO's website are not sufficient to meet the market's strict judgment standards; therefore, they are leveraging this information asymmetry for a reverse arbitrage bet, wagering that the market will ultimately settle with a "No."

-- Price

--

You may also like

How to balance risk and return in DeFi yields?

Have these yields ever been reasonable? Have we ever received the compensation we deserve for the risks taken in DeFi, and where should the future spreads be set?

Tom Lee's Ethereum Thesis: Why the Man Who Called the Last Cycle Is Doubling Down on Bitmine

Tom Lee is emerging as one of Ethereum’s most influential supporters. From Fundstrat to Bitmine, his Ethereum thesis combines staking yield, treasury accumulation, and long-term network value. Here is why “Tom Lee Ethereum” has become one of crypto’s most watched narratives.

Naval personally takes the stage: The historic collision between ordinary people and venture capital

Naval personally stepped in as the chairman of the USVC Investment Committee. This SEC-registered fund launched by AngelList attempts to bring top private tech assets like OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI to the general public with a $500 entry threshold. It is not just a new fund, but a structural experi...

a16z Crypto: 9 Charts to Understand the Evolution Trends of Stablecoins

Stablecoins are evolving from trading tools into universal payment infrastructure, and this process is quieter and more thorough than most people expected.

Refutation of Yang Haipo's "The End of Cryptocurrency"

This may be the true test of cryptocurrency. It's not about whether the price has reached a new high, nor about who will achieve financial freedom in the next bull market, but rather whether, after all the grand narratives have been washed away by cycles, it can still leave behind some simpler, more...

Can a hairdryer earn $34,000? Interpreting the reflexivity paradox of prediction markets

Prediction markets are essentially betting on reality, and when participants can access or even influence this path earlier, the market no longer just reflects reality but begins to shape it in return.
The Joker is back
Bigger pools, auto-play, lucky buffs.
The Joker is backJoin now and grab your rewards.

Contents

Popular coins

Latest Crypto News

03:42

The U.S. bond market is focused on the Federal Reserve meeting, with the probability of a rate cut by the end of the year rising to 40%

According to Jinshi reports, as the situation in the Middle East drives up oil prices, traders in the U.S. Treasury market are closely monitoring this week's Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials' views on the inflation outlook. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain inte...
02:42

Data: If BTC falls below $74,246, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $972 million

According to Coinglass data, if BTC falls below $74,246, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $972 million. Conversely, if BTC breaks above $81,462, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $836 million.
02:42

Data: If ETH falls below $2,243, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on major CEXs will reach $841 million

According to Coinglass data, if ETH falls below $2,243, the cumulative long liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $841 million. Conversely, if ETH breaks above $2,461, the cumulative short liquidation intensity on mainstream CEX will reach $395 million.
00:42

Trump: The war with Iran will end soon, and the United States will win

According to Jinshi reports, U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with Fox News that he believes the war with Iran will end soon, and the U.S. will achieve victory. If Iran wants to negotiate, they can call the U.S. side, "I hope Iran is a bit smarter."
00:42

Data: ETH current average funding rate across the network for 8 hours is -0.0014%

According to Coinglass data, the current 8-hour average funding rate for ETH across the network is -0.0014%. Among the current mainstream exchanges, the rate on Binance is -0.0029%, OKX is -0.0024%, Bybit is 0.0015%, and Gate is -0.0015%.
Read more
Community
iconiconiconiconiconiconicon

Customer Support Bot：@WEEX_support_smart_Bot

VIP Services：support@weex.com