BIT: Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, but it is impossible to determine if the downtrend has ended

BIT's weekly report indicates that with the announcement of a ceasefire, inflationary pressures have risen, and the selection of the Federal Reserve Chair is also in a phase of heightened transition expectations. Logically, these factors combined should have led to more significant market fluctuations, but Bitcoin's overall response remains relatively limited. The market's muted reaction to multiple variables coming into play is noteworthy.

From a geopolitical perspective, the ceasefire arrangement promoted by Trump still faces considerable uncertainty in its actual implementation. Iran's influence in the passage arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz remains strong, and related shipping traffic is significantly below normal levels.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is in a clearly oversold range, with some indicators beginning to show marginal recovery. However, it is still too early to conclude that the downward trend has ended based solely on these signals. In 2022, a similar oversold condition lasted for several months, during which there were moments of rebound signals, but ultimately failed to form an effective reversal. More important than whether the indicators rebound is which price level will trigger a market repricing, as well as the outcomes of two key events next week.