Binance Research: The market's concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated, Bitcoin is approaching a structural bottom
According to the latest weekly report from Binance Research, the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling initially increased uncertainty, but quantitative analysis suggests that the direct impact may be quite limited, and the market may have exaggerated the downside risks of inflation and economic fundamentals.
Concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated. Once software stocks form a durable bottom, the mechanical correlation between tech stocks and Bitcoin will fade. This week's Nvidia earnings report and updates on the Anthropic corporate partnership may be early signals in this direction.
Currently, Bitcoin is experiencing the longest and most significant divergence from global M2 money supply in history, stemming from three major structural distortions: a weak dollar mechanically inflates the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs has led institutions to classify Bitcoin alongside software stocks as part of the same high-volatility tech factor; and high real interest rates have made money market funds a competitive alternative to risk assets.
The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions to be met: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and stability of the dollar, which may be achieved between the second half of 2026 and early 2027.
Multiple technical indicators point to the market being close to a structural bottom: the realized profit-loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has risen to November highs, and defensive positions in options have reached the most extreme levels since the FTX collapse.
Fourth-quarter 13F holdings data shows that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) has net sold about 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continues to accumulate.
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