Analyzing Bitcoin’s Current Mispricing vs. Gold and Global Liquidity Expansion
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin’s price currently reflects a significant undervaluation compared to global monetary supply, suggesting a model-based fair valuation near $270,000.
- Gold has absorbed most of 2025’s liquidity bids, currently overshooting the global M2 by 75%.
- Despite the current low trading price, global liquidity conditions present a bullish environment for Bitcoin ahead of 2026.
- The disparity between Bitcoin’s underperformance and gold’s robust performance highlights a potentially lucrative opportunity for mean reversion in Bitcoin.
WEEX Crypto News, 2025-12-03 07:44:14
In recent months, Bitcoin’s (BTC) trading characteristics have exhibited a stark disconnect from wider macroeconomic trends, notably its divergence from the surging global liquidity and money supply expansion. Despite this, financial experts suggest that this mispricing could soon correct, offering a significant opportunity for savvy investors. Through the lens of macroeconomic models and evaluations, Bitcoin seems positioned for a potentially impressive run as it seeks to align with broader monetary trends that have largely favored other assets, like gold.
Dissecting Bitcoin’s Current Mispricing
Bitcoin is estimated to be undervalued by about 66% in relation to the global money supply. A model developed by Bitwise, a prominent cryptocurrency asset management firm, indicates that Bitcoin’s fair market value might be closer to $270,000. This valuation is derived from Bitcoin’s historical sensitivity to monetary expansions due to its inherent scarcity. Financial analysts suggest that the existing macroeconomic environment is conducive for Bitcoin to eventually correct its course and achieve its implied valuation, particularly as it has traditionally been viewed as a hedge against inflation.
When juxtaposed against gold, which is known for its stability and historical importance as a store of value, Bitcoin’s sluggish performance becomes more apparent. In 2025, gold absorbed much of the year’s liquidity influx, outperforming projections by overshooting the global money supply by 75%. This robust performance further emphasizes gold’s continued investor confidence as a secure asset amid economic turbulence. The variance between gold and Bitcoin’s performances in recent times sets a notable precedent; historically, such a divergence is often followed by a reversion of sorts, potentially allowing Bitcoin to capitalize on its position.
Global Liquidity Surge and Bitcoin’s Lag
The global financial landscape is currently marked by significant liquidity expansion. Various monetary policies across the world’s largest economies are contributing to this liquidity surge. In the United States, for example, the issuance of approximately $1.9 trillion in annual Treasurys, coupled with planned $2,000 stimulus checks, alongside the cessation of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening as of December, are notable factors. Similarly, nations like Japan, Canada, and China have initiated substantial fiscal measures to boost liquidity, including Japan’s $110 billion stimulus package and China’s overarching $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative.
This extensive monetary expansion has resulted in global M2 money supply reaching an unprecedented $137 trillion. However, Bitcoin has not yet mirrored this expansion in its pricing, resulting in what Bitwise’s latest analyses suggest as one of the most significant valuation gaps in Bitcoin’s history. The expectation is that this disconnection will close, propelling Bitcoin towards an anticipated upswing, potentially realizing a gain upwards of 194% as per its long-term liquidity anchor assumptions.
Prospect of Risk-Adjusted Returns and Institutional Insights
Notably, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, discussed the disparity between Bitcoin and gold in terms of momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics. The Sharpe ratio, a measure of return generated relative to an asset’s volatility, currently favors gold, suggesting it offers better risk-adjusted returns compared to Bitcoin. This gap frames the two assets as polar opposites, yet also creates an intriguing scenario where Bitcoin could be poised for mean reversion — an alignment closer to its historical valuations aligned with macroeconomic factors.
Zooming out, despite its underperformance, Bitcoin remains consistent with its long-term adoption trajectories. While the current price points might reflect a less volatile asset compared to gold, Bitcoin’s adaptability and resilience highlight its potential as a strategic long-term investment. The current valuation interplay between Bitcoin and gold effectively underscores Bitcoin not as a direct competitor but perhaps as a younger alternative that may eventually mature and consolidate its value proposition in the broader financial ecosystem.
Conclusion on Bitcoin’s Trajectory
Overall, Bitcoin’s mispricing amidst a backdrop of global monetary expansion signals a noteworthy opportunity for alignment correction over the coming years. This dynamic, characterized by its comparison to gold’s recent performance and consistent investor faith in gold as a secure asset, underscores Bitcoin’s idiosyncratic potential. As Bitcoin’s developmental phases intersect with fluctuating macroeconomic elements, its ability to revert and achieve its fair valuation continues to gain speculative traction among investors and financial analysts alike.
FAQ
What factors have contributed to Bitcoin’s current undervaluation?
Bitcoin’s current undervaluation is attributed to its underperformance relative to the rapid expansion of global liquidity and money supply. While global monetary policies have increased liquidity considerably, Bitcoin’s reaction has lagged behind, creating a significant valuation gap aligned with macroeconomic models.
How does Bitcoin compare to gold’s performance in 2025?
In 2025, gold absorbed the majority of the year’s liquidity influx and significantly outperformed expectations by overshooting the global money supply by approximately 75%. In contrast, Bitcoin has yet to adjust to these global monetary trends, marking a unique divergence in their performance.
What potential does Bitcoin have for future valuation corrections?
Considering the macroeconomic environment and Bitcoin’s historical positioning as a hedge against inflation, there is potential for Bitcoin to realize gains of up to 194%, aligning with its model-implied valuation near $270,000. This prognosis addresses the gap between its current pricing and the global monetary expansion, suggesting a significant upward correction.
How might changes in global liquidity policies affect Bitcoin?
Changes in global liquidity policies, such as aggressive fiscal measures and monetary easing, are likely to impact Bitcoin positively. As liquidity expands, assets like Bitcoin, known for scarcity and as inflation hedges, could capitalize on these trends, potentially improving their valuations.
What is the long-term outlook for Bitcoin relative to its current market status?
In the long term, Bitcoin continues to demonstrate alignment with its power-law adoption curve, despite short-term pricing anomalies. As it matures with limited but consistent returns, Bitcoin is expected to strengthen its standing in the broader financial landscape as both an asset and a currency.
The evolving financial narrative positions Bitcoin in an intriguing place — one bound for potential transformation, aligning macroeconomic factors with its intrinsic value proposition as a scarce and revolutionary currency.
You may also like

WEEX Official Product Launch: Win LALIGA Tickets & Unlock the 3-in-1 Crypto Trading Suite
Trade crypto without downloading an app. Join the WEEX H5, API, SKILLs livestream to explore the new trading experience, win LALIGA VIP tickets, and share 420 USDT rewards.

Dragonfly Partners: Most agents will not engage in autonomous trading, how can crypto payments prevail?

US AI Startup Goes All In on Chinese Mega-Model | Rewire News Morning Brief

Trump Lies Again: A "Five-Day Pause" Psyop, How Wall Street, Bitcoin, and Polymarket Insiders Synced Uposciogen

When a Token Becomes Labor, People Become the Interface

Ceasefire News Leaked Ahead of Time? Large Polymarket Bets on Outcome Before Trump's Tweet

BlackRock CEO's Annual Shareholder Letter: How is Wall Street Using AI to Keep Profiting from National Pension Funds?

Sun Valley Releases 2025 Financial Report: Bitcoin Mining Revenue Reaches $670 Million, Accelerating Transformation to AI Infrastructure Platform
On March 16, 2026, in Dallas, Texas, USA, CanGu Company (New York Stock Exchange code: CANG, hereinafter referred to as "CanGu" or the "Company") today announced its unaudited financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025. As a btc-42">bitcoin mining enterprise relying on a globally operated layout and dedicated to building an integrated energy and AI computing power platform, CanGu is actively advancing its business transformation and infrastructure development.
• Financial Performance:
Total revenue for the full year 2025 was $688.1 million, with $179.5 million in the fourth quarter.
Bitcoin mining business revenue for the full year was $675.5 million, with $172.4 million in the fourth quarter.
Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $24.5 million, while the fourth quarter was -$156.3 million.
• Mining Operations and Costs:
A total of 6,594.6 bitcoins were mined throughout the year, averaging 18.07 bitcoins per day; of which 1,718.3 bitcoins were mined in the fourth quarter, averaging 18.68 bitcoins per day.
The average mining cost for the full year (excluding miner depreciation) was $79,707 per bitcoin, and for the fourth quarter, it was $84,552;
The all-in sustaining costs were $97,272 and $106,251 per bitcoin, respectively.
As of the end of December 2025, the company has cumulatively produced 7,528.4 bitcoins since entering the bitcoin mining business.
• Strategic Progress:
The company has completed the termination of the American Depositary Receipt (ADR) program and transitioned to a direct listing on the NYSE to enhance information transparency and align with its strategic direction, with a long-term goal of expanding its investor base.
CEO Paul Yu stated: "2025 marked the company's first full year as a bitcoin mining enterprise, characterized by rapid execution and structural reshaping. We completed a comprehensive adjustment of our asset system and established a globally distributed mining network. Additionally, the company introduced a new management team, further strengthening our capabilities and competitive advantage in the digital asset and energy infrastructure space. The completion of the NYSE direct listing and USD pricing also signifies our transformation into a global AI infrastructure company."
"As we enter 2026, the company will continue to optimize its balance sheet structure and enhance operational efficiency and cost resilience through adjustments to the miner portfolio. At the same time, we are advancing our strategic transformation into an AI infrastructure provider. Leveraging EcoHash, we will utilize our capabilities in scalable computing power and energy networks to provide cost-effective AI inference solutions. The relevant site transformations and product development are progressing simultaneously, and the company is well-positioned to sustain its execution in the new phase."
The company's Chief Financial Officer, Michael Zhang, stated: "By 2025, the company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth through its scaled mining operations. Despite recording a net loss of $452.8 million from ongoing operations, mainly due to one-time transformation costs and market-driven fair value adjustments, the company, from a financial perspective, will reduce its leverage, optimize its Bitcoin reserve strategy and liquidity management, introduce new capital to strengthen its financial position, and seize investment opportunities in high-potential areas such as AI infrastructure while navigating market volatility."
The total revenue for the fourth quarter was $1.795 billion. Of this, the Bitcoin mining business contributed $1.724 billion in revenue, generating 1,718.3 Bitcoins during the quarter. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $4.8 million.
The total operating costs and expenses for the fourth quarter amounted to $4.56 billion, primarily attributed to expenses related to the Bitcoin mining business, as well as impairment of mining machines and fair value losses on Bitcoin collateral receivables.
This includes:
· Cost of Revenue (excluding depreciation): $1.553 billion
· Cost of Revenue (depreciation): $38.1 million
· Operating Expenses: $9.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Mining Machine Impairment Loss: $81.4 million
· Fair Value Loss on Bitcoin Collateral Receivables: $171.4 million
The operating loss for the fourth quarter was $276.6 million, a significant increase from a loss of $0.7 million in the same period of 2024, primarily due to the downward trend in Bitcoin prices.
The net loss from ongoing operations was $285 million, compared to a net profit of $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The adjusted EBITDA was -$156.3 million, compared to $2.4 million in the same period last year.
The total revenue for the full year was $6.881 billion. Of this, the revenue from the Bitcoin mining business was $6.755 billion, with a total output of 6,594.6 Bitcoins for the year. Revenue from the international automobile trading business was $9.8 million.
The total annual operating costs and expenses amount to $1.1 billion.
Specifically, they include:
· Revenue Cost (excluding depreciation): $543.3 million
· Revenue Cost (depreciation): $116.6 million
· Operating Expenses: $28.9 million (including related-party expenses of $1.1 million)
· Miner Impairment Loss: $338.3 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable Fair Value Change Loss: $96.5 million
The full-year operating loss is $437.1 million. The continuing operations net loss is $452.8 million, while in 2024, there was a net profit of $4.8 million.
The 2025 non-GAAP adjusted net profit is $24.5 million (compared to $5.7 million in 2024). This measure does not include share-based compensation expenses; refer to "Use of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" for details.
As of December 31, 2025, the company's key assets and liabilities are as follows:
· Cash and Cash Equivalents: $41.2 million
· Bitcoin Collateral Receivable (Non-current, related party): $663.0 million
· Miner Net Value: $248.7 million
· Long-Term Debt (related party): $557.6 million
In February 2026, the company sold 4,451 bitcoins and repaid a portion of related-party long-term debt to reduce financial leverage and optimize the asset-liability structure.
As per the stock repurchase plan disclosed on March 13, 2025, as of December 31, 2025, the company had repurchased a total of 890,155 shares of Class A common stock for approximately $1.2 million.

The US AI Startup Is Loving China's Open Source Model

Three Weeks of the US-Iran War: Who's Making Money, Who's Paying the Bill?

Interpreting Polymarket's Major Update Last Night: Fee Expansion, Self-Regulation, and New Incentives

From Human Application to Intelligent Collaboration: How GOAT Network Builds the Next Generation Digital Economy

CZ Washington Dialogue: Crypto Entrepreneurs are Accelerating Their Return to the United States

Morning Report | Strategy increased its holdings by 1,031 bitcoins last week; Katana Blockchain acquires IDEX; NYSE completes rule change to eliminate trading limits on crypto ETF options

WEEX P2P now supports JOD, USD & EUR—Merchant Recruitment Now Open
To make crypto deposits easier, WEEX has officially launched its P2P trading platform and continues to expand fiat support. We're excited to announce that the Jordanian Dinar (JOD), United States Dollar (USD ) and Euro (EUR) are now available on WEEX P2P!

Electric Capital: Tracking 501 types of yield-generating RWA assets, we discovered these patterns

Those who are cut off by AI will not disappear; they will become the creators of the next round of the economy

Stablecoins reshaping cross-border payments in Asia? Strategic panorama and investment opportunity analysis
WEEX Official Product Launch: Win LALIGA Tickets & Unlock the 3-in-1 Crypto Trading Suite
Trade crypto without downloading an app. Join the WEEX H5, API, SKILLs livestream to explore the new trading experience, win LALIGA VIP tickets, and share 420 USDT rewards.
