Analysis: The impact of oil shocks on the United States is relatively small, and Bitcoin may benefit as a result

According to CoinDesk, despite the conflict between the U.S. and Israel pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel, Bitcoin has remained relatively stable around $67,000 over the past week.

Analysts point out that this may be related to Bitcoin's close correlation with the U.S. stock market—since the U.S. is a net exporter of oil and has a lower dependence on Middle Eastern oil, the U.S. stock market has shown relative resilience, benefiting Bitcoin as well. Data shows that the U.S. primarily imports oil from Canada and Mexico, with only 4% coming from Saudi Arabia, making it largely immune to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Since the conflict erupted on February 28, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures have only dropped just over 3%, while the Nikkei index has fallen by 10%, India's Nifty by 5%, and South Korea's Kospi by over 16%.

Analysts note that with the launch of spot ETFs and expectations of regulatory easing following Trump's victory, Bitcoin has gradually evolved into a quasi-U.S. risk asset, increasingly correlated with U.S. financial conditions. Additionally, Bitcoin had already retraced to around $60,000 before the conflict, releasing short-term selling pressure and providing a relatively stable foundation for the current price.